China Could Become World’s Largest Rental Housing Market: MTD TV APAC Residential Forum 2022

Mainland China’s rental residential market could grow into one of the largest globally as rising housing prices and a thriving professional class transform housing choices in Asia’s largest economy, industry leaders said in a panel discussion as part of Mingtiandi’s APAC Residential Forum on Tuesday.

“China probably has the potential to be the biggest institutional residential market globally, bigger than the US and if you look at the numbers already, more people rent there than probably anywhere else and so the opportunities deepen,” said David Fassbender, managing director and Southeast Asia head at PGIM Real Estate.

“We want to play in that particular space but I think there’s still quite a lot that needs to happen,” Fassbender added during the Multi-Family Investment in Greater China panel, which was conducted as part of the Mingtiandi APAC Residential Forum 2022.

Investors have already reacted to this transformation of China’s housing market, with trades of income-earning residential assets on the mainland last year having reached more than double the 2015 to 2019 average, according to data from MSCI-RCA, with deal volumes in Hong Kong have climbed still more steeply.

BTR Becomes Core

Fassbender said at the event, which was sponsored by Yardi, that mainland China and Hong Kong are PGIM Real Estate’s top picks for multi-family investment opportunities in the region outside of Japan – where the rental market is among the world’s most developed – and Australia, as the US fund manager grows its build-to-rent portfolio.

Speaking at the same forum, Claire Tang, co-chief investment officer for Asia Pacific and head of Greater China at LaSalle Investment Management, said China’s multi-family sector is still in its early stages but has the potential for rapid growth given its demographics and with enough policy support from the government.

“I agree with David that multi-family, not only in China but in most of Asia, excluding Japan, is still a very very nascent asset class, but I do think in the China context, it certainly has the scale to become the largest in Asia or the largest globally in terms of an asset class, but there’s quite a ways to go,” Tang said. “It’s extremely important to be able to demonstrate that there is a core market for multifamily and that’s actually going to help with the development of the value added, and the entire sector as a whole.”

Tang said that policy-makers, particularly in Shanghai, have been supportive of the local rental housing market through tax incentives, templates for financial support and most importantly, creation of improved legal frameworks governing conversion of assets for residential use.

“I do think that the important evolution in terms of regulatory developments is that there is now a very standard legal framework of how to convert hotel and retail or office assets into multifamily versus before when you look at this market three to four years ago,” she said.

Charles Ma, Greystar’s managing director for China investments, said one of the major drivers for the global economic powerhouse’s rental housing market is its growing cohort of professionals opting to rent homes, especially as the country’s largest cities becoming magnets for talent.

“Given that trend, you can see that the amount of residential being supplied in the market is definitely just not enough. And so, I think more housing solutions either, for sale, rental, institutional or shadow will need to continue to be developed,” he said.

Fassbender added that development of real estate investment trusts focused on Chinese multi-family assets would go a long way in helping the sector mature and attracting foreign institutional investors aiming to make the sector a core component of their portfolios.

Conversion Rules in Hong Kong

Weave Living founder and chief executive Sachin Doshi – who has been one of the early movers in creating branded, long-term rental accommodations in Hong Kong – said demand for quality rental housing remains robust in the city especially with residents seeking better rental experiences.

“If you look at a city like Hong Kong, the bulk of the rental residential stock is still owned by the mom and pop landlord, which ends up leading to very suboptimal tenancy outcomes and poor service levels,” Doshi said.

“What we’ve seen is that the end user is willing to pay a premium for convenience or good design, and ultimately having a reliable and institutional counterparty will allow them to enjoy the rental experience more,” he added.

Doshi stressed that, while there has been a streak of hotel conversions recently for re-use as rental housing projects, the pool of potential assets is much broader than just the hospitality market.

Weave, which recently opened its sixth location in Hong Kong, and earlier this month established a beachhead in Singapore, has acquired a variety of assets, including former serviced apartments and other residential properties in establishing its projects in the city, Doshi said.

Next Stop: Japan

While rental residential is on the rise in Greater China, Japan has established Asia Pacific’s largest multi-family market, with a Mingtiandi panel set to explore opportunities in the country this Thursday.

In the online discussion at 10:00 AM on 24 March, Laurent Jacquemin, head of Asia Pacific for AXA IM Alts Real Assets; M&G fund manager Richard van den Berg, Emilia Teo, a managing director at Singapore’s TE Capital Partners and Minoru Machida, chief executive of Tokyo Trust Capital, will discuss how the Japan market continues to evolve in terms of tenant demand and investment opportunities.

Next week the forum will continue with a panel on multi-family investment in Australia on 29 March with Sam Bisla, head of living for Australia at Hines, Laurent Fischler, head of investments for Asia Pacific at Ivanhoé Cambridge and Stephen Gaitanos, managing director and Group CEO for Scape.

The series will be capped off on 31 March with a panel on debt financing opportunities in Asia’s residential sector, with Nick Shi, global head of real estate investment with Haitong International, Trent Winduss, partner and head of both Asia secured debt investments and Australian investments for Phoenix Property Investors and Joel H Rothstein, shareholder and chair of the Asia real estate practice at Greenberg Traurig.