Singapore Private Home Price Growth Slows to 1.5% as Q1 Sales Dive

Singapore’s price index for private residential properties slowed to 1.5 percent growth in the first quarter of 2024 from a 2.8 percent rise in the previous three months, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s flash estimates.

A 20 percent quarterly drop in transaction volume in the January-March period continued a recent trend after yearly transaction volume for 2023 was the lowest since 2016, the URA said Monday in a release. Prices of non-landed properties climbed 1 percent, tapering from a 2.3 percent increase in the final quarter of last year.

The agency warned that the economic outlook remains subject to uncertainties, particularly stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflicts that could precipitate negative global supply and demand shocks.

“Domestic mortgage rates are expected to remain at levels that are elevated relative to the low levels seen over the past decade,” the URA said. “Households should continue to exercise prudence when taking on new financial commitments including long-term mortgage debt servicing obligations.”

Luxury Moves the Needle

Price growth in the non-landed private homes segment was mainly driven by the Core Central Region — a proxy for luxury homebuyers — which saw prices rise 3.1 percent in the first quarter after a 3.9 percent jump in the previous quarter, when strong sales at UOL Group’s Watten House project in Bukit Timah had helped lift prices, PropNex Realty said in a release.

The top non-landed home transactions in the CCR were the resale of two units at KOP Properties’ The Ritz-Carlton Residences Singapore Cairnhill, with the apartments fetching S$16.5 million ($12.2 million) or S$5,397 per square foot each.

Non-landed private home prices in the city-fringe Rest of Central Region edged up 0.2 percent in the first quarter, reversing a 0.8 percent decline in the preceding three months. Sales were propelled by the launch of Far East Organization and Sekisui House’s The Arcady at Boon Keng, which shifted 49 units at an average price of S$2,575 per square foot.

In the Outside Central Region, non-landed home prices crept up 0.4 percent in the first quarter after a 4.5 percent surge in the previous quarter, when the launch of CapitaLand’s J’den project in Jurong East and transactions at Hillock Green — a joint venture of United Engineers Ltd, Soilbuild Holdings and Forsea Residence — created a high-base effect.

“The private home sales market got off to a slow start in 2024, but we are seeing some signs of rekindling interest in home purchase, particularly in March where the launch of Lentor Mansion saw 75 percent of the total units transacted in a single weekend,” said PropNex CEO Ismail Gafoor. “The relaunch of Cuscaden Reserve recently also raked in sales at the CCR project, with Singaporeans accounting for a big chunk of the transactions.”

Large Projects Primed

OrangeTee expects private home prices to grow at a steady rate of 3 to 6 percent this year. The local agency anticipates six to nine large projects, each with over 500 units, launching in 2024.

“This may result in sales exceeding 1,000 units for certain months,” said OrangeTee chief researcher and strategist Christine Sun. By comparison, four large projects (excluding executive condominiums) were launched in 2021, one in 2022 and six in 2023.

CBRE forecasts sales of 7,000-8,000 new homes in 2024, up from 6,421 units in the whole of 2023 but still below the five-year average of 9,288 during 2019-23, according to Singapore research head Tricia Song.