Blackstone’s Byron Wien doesn’t look cheerful about China’s 2016 prospects
Markets appear to have calmed down after China’s real estate shares lead a mainland market decline that spooked the world yesterday. Today, however, Blackstone believes China may surprise the world with slower than expected growth and much more. All the headlines are here:
Blackstone Predicts China Growth to Dip Below 5%
On Monday, Byron Wien, vice chairman of multiasset investing at Blackstone, predicted China’s economic growth could slow to less than 5% this year, its banks will face a crisis on mounting bad debts and that Beijing will be forced to sharply devalue the yuan in a bid to rejuvenate exports.
“China barely avoids a hard landing and its soft economy fails to produce enough new jobs to satisfy its young people,” he projected in his list of 10 potential “surprises” for 2016. Read more>>
How the $3.5B Baha Mar Resort Went Bust
Beyond the tropical waters, across palm-fringed sands and behind locked gates, looms Baha Mar — the largest and, at $3.5 billion, priciest resort in the Caribbean.
Here, no one frolics pool-side, pina colada in hand, or hits irons on the Jack Nicklaus golf course. No slot machines jingle-jangle in the casino. The Flamingo Bar, the Brasserie des Arts and the Cartier boutique lie dark. On this bright October morning in the Bahamas, all 2,200 guest rooms are empty. Read more>>
US Real Estate Gains Appeal with Foreign Investors in 2016
Most foreign investors expect to put more money into U.S. property this year than they did in 2015, with New York remaining the top target market worldwide, according to a survey by the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate.
Sixty-four percent of respondents said they intend to make modest or major increases to investments in U.S. real estate this year, while 31 percent expect to maintain their holdings or reinvest sales proceeds into other U.S. assets, according to the 24th annual survey by the group, known as AFIRE. None of the respondents plans a major decrease. About half of the group’s roughly 200 members participated in the survey. Read more>>
HK Developers Take on HK$1.3B in Receivables to Entice Homebuyers
Hong Kong developers have added an estimated HK$1.3 billion in mortgage receivables to their accounts by providing first and second mortgages for the first time in a decade to help boost sales, according to analysts.
Facing fierce competition amid a tightening of mortgage policies, a growing number of developers have been skirting bank regulations by providing home loans of up to 95 per cent of the purchase price through wholly owned financial institutions to lure buyers. Read more>>
HK Housing Downturn May Be Short-Lived Says BNP Paribas
The general consensus is that home prices in Hong Kong will drop in 2016.
The debate is whether the city’s housing sector is facing a cyclical or a structural down cycle.
Contrary to consensus expectations of a multi-year down cycle, BNP Paribas expects property prices to correct 10 per cent in 2016 before returning to an up cycle in 2017. Read more>>
Tune in again tomorrow for more news, and be sure to follow @Mingtiandi on Twitter for headlines as they happen.
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