Japan Multi-Family Offers Steady Returns as Market Risks Rise in 2026 : MTD TV

Japan’s multi-family sector is cementing its status as a defensive asset class, with resilient income, deep liquidity and sustained rental growth supporting allocations despite global uncertainty, according to senior executives from Alyssa Partners, Gaw Capital Partners, Samurai Capital and Savills appearing in a panel at Mingtiandi’s APAC Residential Forum 2026.

The speakers on Tuesday’s MTD TV programme, which was sponsored by Yardi, highlighted rental residential’s scale as a core attraction, with Japan remaining Asia Pacific’s largest multi-family investment market by far and continuing to draw both domestic and overseas capital.

Isabella Lo, head of Japan at Hong Kong-based Gaw, said the country’s rental housing market offers one of the most attractive risk-reward profiles in today’s environment, underpinned by steady demand and limited downside risk.

“With all the uncertainties in the world right now, including wars or the impact from AI, we actually think that the Japan residential sector is probably the most defensive against all the negative impacts,” Lo told MTD TV viewers.

Shock Absorber

Her view was echoed by Chedli Boujellabia, managing partner and CEO of Alyssa Partners, who described Japan multi-family as “the most defensive asset class we can think of”, citing more than two decades of institutional investment history and resilience through turmoil.

Boujellabia, whose firm teamed with Gaw a few years ago to buy a set of 29 Tokyo apartment buildings, said strong domestic liquidity should continue to drive transaction activity, even as some offshore investors adopt a wait-and-see approach amid geopolitical risks.

“We managed various shocks from global financial crises to the March 2011 earthquake to COVID,” he said. “So as an asset class, it’s pretty defensive, pretty scalable. And it will continue to be basically sought after by both domestic and international investors.”

Tight cap rates are also pushing investors to look beyond Tokyo, according to Ken Aoyama, president and CEO of Samurai Capital, who noted that yields in Osaka are converging with those in the capital as liquidity improves in regional cities.

“Tokyo is definitely the main market in Japan,” Aoyama said. “The transaction volume is much higher in Tokyo, so we cannot ignore the Tokyo market. However, at the same time, Osaka will also be a main market in Japan, and getting more and more attractive because Osaka as a regional city is also getting higher liquidity.”

From a capital markets perspective, Savills senior director Emily Fell said Japan continues to dominate regional allocations.

“It really comes down to Japan multi-family being the only scalable and liquid market,” Fell said, noting that global investors are seeking to replicate living-sector portfolios built in the US and Europe.

While cap rates in Tokyo have stabilised around the high-3 percent range, she sees strong rental growth and sustained demand offsetting upward pressure from interest rates, keeping pricing broadly steady.

Live From Singapore

With the APAC Residential Forum complete, next up on the 2026 calendar is Mingtiandi’s fifth annual in-person event in Singapore.

After attracting nearly 270 on-location guests and over 17,500 online views in 2025, the Mingtiandi Singapore Forum 2026 on 12 May will bring together executives from pension funds, insurers, sovereign funds and investment managers at the Conrad Singapore Marina Bay for a full day of panels and interviews exploring strategies for the region.

The forum will feature conversations with Hongkong Land CEO Michael Smith, Warburg Pincus managing director and Asia real estate co-head Ellen Ng, and GLP China CEO Angela Zhao.